Anti-government protests raging across Iran are now making headlines even in Japan. 

Anti-government protests continue in Iran, internet blackout exceeds 60 hours: AFPBB News
https://www.afpbb.com/articles/-/3617542

As of January 11, 2026, the demonstrations have continued for over two weeks, spreading to all 31 provinces nationwide, with millions taking to the streets. Reports indicate at least 65 deaths and over 2,300 arrests, while nationwide internet and phone blackouts—starting around January 8—have reduced connectivity to “1% levels” in many areas, according to monitoring groups. 

This is one of the largest protest waves in recent years, but the situation in Iran and the broader Middle East remains highly complex, making accurate predictions of future developments extremely difficult at present.

In intelligence and counterintelligence study sessions conducted by JEEADiS, we discussed Middle Eastern religious networks and information-sharing mechanisms. Unlike the state-centric models common in the West, the region exhibits strong cross-border and cultural connectivity due to its unique historical and societal features.

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Iran’s intelligence community features two well-known agencies: MOIS (Ministry of Intelligence and Security) and IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). However, other entities—such as the national police cybercrime unit and internal affairs departments within the judiciary—also function as part of the intelligence apparatus. A defining characteristic is the “intelligence strategy under religious rule,” with the Supreme Leader at the top. The IRGC, in particular, operates as a far more powerful security organ, handling both overt missions and covert operations.

Iranian Intelligence Community: An Overview – Grey Dynamics
https://greydynamics.com/iranian-intelligence-community-an-overview/

Middle Eastern intelligence strategies can be broadly classified along sectarian lines—Shiite and Sunni—similar to the divisions within Islam itself. Yet even within the Sunni camp, rivalries and alliances coexist in complex ways, making boundaries quite blurred. Following the 2020 Abraham Accords (normalization between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, etc.), secret cooperation in defense and intelligence has deepened significantly. Centered on shared threats from Iran, this includes cyber espionage and joint training, though it stops short of a formal military alliance.

Shiite axis: Iran (via the IRGC) at the center, coordinating highly integrated quasi-joint operations in intelligence and military affairs with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Sunni axis: Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) leverage religious institutions and charitable organizations for soft-power projection combined with intelligence gathering.

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Since late 2025 and into early 2026, Iran has faced severe economic collapse (currency freefall, runaway inflation, low oil prices), massive protests, and growing cracks in the loyalty of security forces—this latest wave is a direct continuation of that trend. As of January 11, 2026, Polymarket’s prediction market for “Will the Iranian regime fall by the end of 2026?” has surged to 48%, with overall estimates of collapse probability ranging from 30–50% (based on market consensus).

Polymarket | The World’s Largest Prediction Market
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026

Possible collapse scenarios include internal implosion, an IRGC-led coup, or external military intervention. While the probability remains relatively low, there is also some expectation of a transition to constitutional monarchy via “Pahlavi dynasty restoration.”

On the other hand, the regime’s complex power structure (interwoven religious leadership, military, and security organs) has demonstrated remarkable resilience, having weathered large-scale protests in the past. True collapse would require critical triggers such as military fragmentation or the flight of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Before reaching that “danger zone,” it is arguably more realistic that the outcome will be military dictatorship or further hardening of the current system.

Moreover, an Iranian regime collapse would deal a serious blow to China’s oil dependency (energy security and sanctions evasion) and Russia’s military alliance (arms, drones, anti-Western coordination). Both countries recognize Iran’s geopolitical value and are therefore likely to intensify support to prevent collapse—a highly plausible scenario.

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The Japanese government and media fundamentally desire “overall stability and de-escalation in the Middle East.” They most want to avoid a sudden regime collapse or military escalation (e.g., U.S. intervention). The biggest factor is energy security: Japan relies heavily on oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where instability could cause supply disruptions. For this reason, Tokyo consistently calls for “de-escalation” and “maximum restraint,” prioritizing the maintenance of the current (albeit repressive) stability over chaotic regime change.

Japan and Iran have long enjoyed a “pro-Japan” relationship, maintaining some economic and cultural exchanges even under sanctions. While Japan is a U.S. ally, it adopts a cautious diplomatic and geopolitical stance toward Iran, balancing relations with the U.S., China, and Russia. This leads to restrained reporting that avoids excessive criticism of the regime or sensational collapse scenarios, sticking instead to factual minimum coverage—an eminently realistic approach.

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Update (January 14, 2026):
Reports indicate a sharp escalation in violence, with unverified casualty estimates varying widely across sources, ranging from the low thousands to significantly higher figures. Due to information blackouts and conflicting claims, these numbers cannot be independently confirmed at this stage. The situation remains fluid—readers are advised to monitor multiple reliable international outlets for the latest developments.